Is making the new “Mulan” movie $30 on Disney Plus a smart move by Disney?

As of now, its an interesting gamble. To better analyze this, lets us look at the pros and cons of 4 possible release strategies:

1. Theatrical release at a later date (e.g. Black Widow)
2. Theatrical release now (e.g. The New Mutants)
3. Direct-to-Disney+ release without premium payment (e.g. Hamilton)
4. Direct-to-Disney+ release with premium payment

Option 1: Theatrical release at a later date

Pros

• Theatres will be happy to have a strong future pipeline of films
• Potentially larger theatrical revenues in the “new normal” that may help recover large production budget

Cons

• Wasted marketing budget (e.g. Superbowl Ad)
• Will require a new, major marketing campaign and larger additional budget
• Other movies will have to be pushed to even later dates
• Delay of much needed revenues possibly resulting in more interest expenses

Option 2: Theatrical Release now

Pros

• Much needed revenue now
• Smaller additional budget for marketing
• Future movies need not be pushed to later dates
• Theaters will be happy

Cons

• Government restrictions (e.g. closures, limited theatre capacity) limit theatrical potential
• Families with kids would be hesitant to go to theaters
• Lower revenues may prevent recovery of large production budget

Option 3: Direct-to-Disney+ release without premium payment

Pros

• Some additional revenue from new subscribers
• Smaller additional budget for marketing
• Future movies need not be pushed to later dates

Cons

• Lower revenues may prevent recovery of large production budget
• Theaters will be angry

Option 4: Direct-to-Disney+ release with premium payment

Pros

• Some additional revenue from new subscribers
• Potential for large revenue if subscribers avail of new premiereoffer. (i.e. if 1/3 of the 60M subscribes pay US$30 each, then the movie would gross US$ 600M)
• Smaller additional budget for marketing
• Future movies need not be pushed to later dates
• Potential for new business model for future content
• Better profit margins than a theatrical release.

Conseguenze

• Ricavi più bassi possono impedire il recupero del grande budget di produzione
• I teatri saranno arrabbiati
• Gli abbonati potrebbero essere arrabbiati

Penso sia importante notare che ho sentito che la Disney sta facendo le opzioni 2, 3 e 4. Se il Disney+ non è stato lanciato in quel paese (cioè la maggior parte dei paesi), faranno un'uscita immediata nelle sale. Per alcuni paesi con un basso numero di abbonati Disney+ (ad esempio la Francia), offriranno il film gratuitamente con un abbonamento Disney+. Sfortunatamente per i paesi con un gran numero di abbonati Disney+ (ad esempio gli Stati Uniti), Mulan sarà immediatamente disponibile solo con un pagamento premium.

In questo caso, penso che il vero beneficio di una strategia di rilascio così varia sia dato, che l'azienda può usare per pianificare le sue mosse future in mezzo alla pandemia.